Under BAU forcing in the 21st century, the sea level rise surely will be dominated by a third term: (3) ice sheet disintegration. This third term was small until the past few years, but it is has at least doubled in the past decade and is now close to 1 mm/year, based on the gravity satellite measurements discussed above. As a quantitative example, let us say that the ice sheet contribution is 1 cm for the decade 2005–15 and that it doubles each decade until the West Antarctic ice sheet is largely depleted. That time constant yields a sea level rise of the order of 5 m this century. Of course I cannot prove that my choice of a ten-year doubling time for nonlinear response is accurate, but I am confident that it provides a far better estimate than a linear response for the ice sheet component of sea level rise under BAU forcing.
Does anyone read the above paragraph as a “published, informed estimate” of sea level rise, rather than as an admittedly unsupported example to be contrasted with the IPCC’s linear BAU response as Jim Hansen explicitly states?
Anyone other than a perpetually misunderstood, non-skeptical heretic of course.
Have a nice weekend.
[UPDATE: It seems Gavin beat me to the punch.]