Tag Archives: anti-regulation

Making an honest hack out of Fred Pearce in five easy steps

Image courtesy of Flickr user “bLOGOS/HA HA”, used under Creative Commons

Attempting to convince those in the grip of denialism is like trying to nail Jell-O to a wall. Take the case of the DDT-holocaust lie. No sooner has one false claim been thrown out (e.g. DDT ban in Malaysia in 1999 resulted in an increase in malaria) and shown to be nonsense than a new claim bearing no particular relation to its predecessor is deployed. Rather than chase down every single mutually contradictory claim made by those perpetuating the lie, I invite them to put themselves on record in a manner that makes their claims easily assessable.

In order to claim, as rubbish journalist Fred Pearce has, that anti-science environmentalism is responsible for “blanket opposition” to DDT use in fighting malaria resulting in a “virtual ban” for “more than three decades” and “millions of deaths”, one only has to satisfy a handful of conditions:

  1. Quantify how many, from where, and over what time interval the “millions of deaths” are supposed to have occurred.
  2. Demonstrate that there was a ban (actual or “virtual”), restriction, or other meaningful impediment to using DDT for malaria control (vs. for example agricultural spraying) in place for all deaths claimed in the above.
  3. Demonstrate that had DDT been implemented, all deaths claimed in the above would have been prevented (taking into consideration obvious confounding factors like the increase in resistance to DDT).
  4. Demonstrate that had DDT been implemented, the overall net result including health, economic, and environmental problems would have been positive- in other words, that using DDT would have resulted in more good than harm.
  5. Demonstrate that the cause of DDT not being implemented in all of the above cases was specifically attributable to “blanket” anti-science environmentalist opposition, rather than science-, economics-, efficacy-, and logistics-based reasons from professional science and health organizations like the World Health Organization, or implementation problems that had nothing to do with Silent Spring (such as replastering and bedbug concerns raised in places like South Africa).

Pretty simple. If you can’t satisfy the conditions, you don’t get to toss corpses at the feet of supposed anti-science environmentalist opposition arising from Silent Spring. Just how serious a case do people like Fred Pearce and Roy Spencer really believe they have?

My guess? Most won’t even  get past the first question or two.

Lomborg and Playing the Long Game

[This is a guest post by John Mashey. Any formatting/link errors are mine. I also added Hoover, Manhattan, Reason to Lomborg’s think tank affiliations  – TB]

Following started at ThingsBreak, as part of a long discussion on Bjorn Lomborg.

BACKGROUND:

Suppose one’s goal is to avoid restrictions on CO2 production, for any of a variety of reasons, a partial list of which can be found at Deltoid.

One can use any of the following types of arguments, among others:

1) AGW science is wrong [GHGs aren’t that important, the data is wrong, etc]. i.e., doubt.
2) AGW-mitigation will cost too much money, or people will be much richer, or we need to wait for technology breakthroughs, etc.
3) AGW maybe real, but there are higher priorities.

These roughly correspond to:
1) direct anti-science,
2) direct economic, and
3) political arguments (typically masking economic or ideological underpinnings).

Of these, 3), if done well, is the most sophisticated, and can be made to appeal to many people who might not be convinced by the other arguments. Hence:

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