I’ve written about what I’ve called the “proto-consensus” on tropical cyclones (AKA hurricanes, typhoons) under anthropogenic warming before (e.g. here and here). On Sunday, Nature Geoscience published a Review entitled “Tropical cyclones and climate change” [full paper here] by Thomas Knutson, John McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, James Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and Masato Sugi that succinctly covers the state of play, reiterating that the evidence seems to be increasingly pointing to a warmer world with less frequent yet more powerful hurricanes:
…future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre…
More if/when I have time.
[h/t Andrew Freedman]